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Forecasting and Trend Analysis

In an ever-changing, dynamic and volatile sector, tourism destination managers need to be continually adapting to the changing environment in their approach to destination management and strategies for destination development and marketing. Understanding current and forecast trends including economic, social, environmental trends and changing consumer behaviours is important in responding with an appropriate strategic approach. Identifying and assessing industry trends can be undertaken through visitor surveys, visitor profile and statistical research and global and national trend analysis.Read more
Tourism Trend Analysis

In an ever-changing, dynamic and volatile sector, tourism destination managers need to be continually adapting to the changing environment in their approach to destination management and strategies for destination development and marketing. Understanding current and forecast trends including economic, social, environmental trends and changing consumer behaviours is important in responding with an appropriate strategic approach. Identifying and assessing industry trends can be undertaken through visitor surveys, visitor profile and statistical research and global and national trend analysis.

Destination Management Tip

State and National Tourism Organisations provide regular forecasting and trend analysis research publications that can be used by destinations in understanding future market changes and opportunities.

 

Tourism Forecasting

Tourism forecasting and modelling are important in identifying possible future trends that may affect the industry at a national or destination level. National level forecasts can provide high level insights into expected visitor numbers and growth, source markets and other potential market changes that may affect future planning for a destination or region. At a destination level, predicative modelling for tourism can help managers to identify potential issues, challenges and opportunities for the future development and management of tourism in a region. Predicative modelling can assist in testing possible tourism scenarios and their potential impact on the destination and its future planning and management.

 

There are a range of predictive modelling tools such as input-output analysis, computable general equilibrium models, tourism systems models and Geographical Information Systems that have been developed. The Tapestry Tourism Futures Model, developed by the Sustainable Tourism Cooperative Research Centre in the Regional Tourism Modelling report, is a tourism systems model approach to forecasting and scenario analysis. The Tapestry Model framework (as below), applied to the Tapestry region as a case study, assesses the impact that a growth in visitor numbers or population will have on expenditure, business activity and demand for infrastructure development and investment in the region. A similar model was also used in the Ningaloo Destination Modelling project undertaken by the STCRC.

 

 

Source: Walker et al, 2005 ‘Regional Tourism Modelling; The South West Tapestry’, Sustainable Tourism Cooperative Research Centre
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